Six Degrees:
"A must read for those who can stomach it"


"A must read for those who can stomach it" are words recently used by Stephan Rahmstorf Ph.D., a top notch climatologist at Potsdam University and contributor to realclimate.org. Recently he wrote a book review in Nature on Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas. Mark Lynas has spent months trawling through thousands of papers on climate change. The culmination of his research is a book of six chapters, each of which discusses the repercussions of every degree Celsius of potential impact for global warming. So if anyone has ever asked you "What is going to happen?" or "What are the consequences?" this is the book. In Rahmstorf's eyes the book is not perfect but it is still a work of exceptional quality:

His statements are referenced throughout, and, as a palaeoclimatologist, I was familiar with fewer than half of the 500 or so papers he cites. [snip] I have my quibbles with some of Lynas's interpretations and there is the odd error, but such complaints seem petty in view of the overall achievement and importance of this book. [snip] Gloomy as his story sounds, in some cases he may even be too optimistic. [snip] Lynas is a gripping story-teller, making the book infinitely less tedious than the papers it is based on. A must-read for those who can stomach it.

So if somebody asks you "why should I care?" this is apparently the book to read.

Source:
Nature, Degrees of change, BOOK REVIEWED-Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. by Mark Lynas, Stefan Rahmstorf
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet

Hello and Goodbye Mr. Walrus

Recently Eli Rabett has reported on the opening of the Northwest Passage, a sea route for ships to travel from Europe to Asia via north of Canada. The Washington Post is reporting that the recent ice melt is unprecedented:

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.

Clearly records are being broken. But one thing that has flown under the radar of most of the climate blogs is *why* this is important to those concerned about climate change.

#1 Predictions & Rate of Change

The first reason why this is important is the rate of change:

Deborah Williams _ who was an Interior Department special assistant for Alaska under former President Bill Clinton, and who is now president of the nonprofit Alaska Conservation Solutions _ said melting of sea ice and its effects on wildlife were never even discussed during her federal service from 1995 to 2000.

"That's what so breathtaking about this," she said. "This has all happened faster than anyone could have predicted.

In other words all of the worst case scenario predictions made pre-2000 have underestimated the impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change. This stands in stark contrast from the "fear monger" name calling coming out of the CFC's-don't-harm-ozone and Exxon funded Heartland Institute.

#2 Loss of Habitat

The second reason sea ice melt is important is was reported on yesterday in the Washington Post. Walruses are normally "spread over thousands of miles of sea ice" so they can dive down to eat clams, snails and other bottom dwellers. Floating ice is the perfect hunting ground for walruses as it act like a moving conveyor belt allowing them to rest between dives and catch lots of food. Yet the ice has receded to water deeper than their 630 foot diving range and so their natural habitat has literally disappeared. Now the thousands of walrus have picked Alaska's rocky beaches. The walrus has lost thousands of miles of hunting grounds, a natural conveyor belt of food and are not collected in one tiny spot. Clearly things are going to get rather uncomfortable for the walrus.

#3 Albedo

The third, and possibly most important, reason why ice melt is important is the albedo effect. Ice acts like a mirror and shines light back into space. When this ice is gone the ocean will absorb quit a bit more light. The effect is rather strong and during the ice ages the albedo effect was calculated to account for 2/3's of the cooling while CO2 was only 1/3. Melting ice can be a massive positive feedback for global warming.

Of course climate critics like Lubos Motl are praising this as a "Nature's gift". And so the debate starts to exit a scientific field and starts to enter a moral one.



Sources:

• Washington Post, Melting Ice Pack Displaces Alaska Walrus, October 7, 2007
• Ice Ages, solving the mystery, John Imbrie and Katherine Palmer Imbrie
• Shipping
  

Mountain Top Mining To Expand


From the NYT's

The Bush administration is set to issue a regulation on Friday that would enshrine the coal mining practice of mountaintop removal. The technique involves blasting off the tops of mountains and dumping the rubble into valleys and streams.

It has been used in Appalachian coal country for 20 years under a cloud of legal and regulatory confusion.

The new rule would allow the practice to continue and expand, providing only that mine operators minimize the debris and cause the least environmental harm, although those terms are not clearly defined and to some extent merely restate existing law.......

The regulation is the culmination of six and a half years of work by the administration to make it easier for mining companies to dig more coal to meet growing energy demands and reduce dependence on foreign oil.

Lots of pics of mountain top mining at Ohio Valley Environmental Health. And here is an EPA article on the effects of this kind of mining. Robert Rapier claims that increased dependence on coal is inevitable. If oil demand outstrips oil supply we will almost certainly start squeezing oil out of coal. If that happens it will be interesting to see what will happen to the Appalachian trail loved by so many hikers.

Source:
Rule to Expand Mountaintop Coal Mining, JOHN M. BRODER, August 23, 2007

Global Warming's Impact on Wine



An informative video on wines and climate change. Looks like Nappa Valley may stop growing Pinot Noir and start growing Torrontés grapes from Argentina.

Source:
KQED,Napa Wineries Face Global Warming

750,000 a Year Killed by Chinese Pollution: A Chinese holocaust every 8 years


The above picture is a satellite photo from NASA and this is the caption:

This SeaWiFS image of eastern China shows the widespread nature of the pollution problem. Beijing has completely disappeared under the haze.

The gray haze stands in stark contrast with the relatively normal white clouds. This picture should make it obvious that pollution is a massive problem in China. But just how much of a problem is it? Well the Financial Times is reporting that the World Bank cut out nearly a third of their "report on pollution in China because of concerns that findings on premature deaths could provoke “social unrest”."

Missing from this report are the research project’s findings that high air-pollution levels in Chinese cities is leading to the premature deaths of 350,000-400,000 people each year. A further 300,000 people die prematurely each year from exposure to poor air indoors, according to advisers, but little discussion of this issue survived in the report because it was outside the ambit of the Chinese ministries which sponsored the research.

Another 60,000-odd premature deaths were attributable to poor-quality water, largely in the countryside, from severe diarrhoea, and stomach, liver and bladder cancers.

These stats mean that China suffers 62,500 pollution related deaths per month. At this rate China is recreating the Holocaust every 8 years. A while back the BBC reported that Tehran has had as much as 3,600 air pollution related deaths in a single month. By comparison 9/11 cost 2,994 deaths and a $440+ billion war was started. If we use USA retaliatory accounting China and Tehran should spend $9.7 trillion each month in a war on pollution. As a side not one of the benefits of a "war on pollution" is that, if successful, we will become completely independent of foreign oil. That in itself is a major victory in the separate but related "war on terror". Although pollution kills a lot more people than the war on terror has a war on pollution would be a lot cheaper than a war on terror. Nobel laureate Richard Smalley advocates a nickel and dime solution:

adding 5 cents to the price of each gallon of petrofuel would provide $10 billion annually that could fund energy education and research. After five years, this surcharge could be doubled. "At worst, you will get a new generation of scientists and engineers and a cornucopia of new technologies," Smalley said. "At best, you solve the energy problem."

$10 billion over 12 months is 0.83 billion per month. Comparing that to our $9.7 trillion figure a war on pollution would cost 1/11,686th the amount that the war on terror does per each individual death. For those of you who are skeptical by these death counts feel free to divide them by 11,686 and we will still have more than enough cause to pursue a war on pollution. Obviously there are other things to consider but this should give a good general feel of how much cheaper than the war on terror a war on pollution would be. Although I don't have any statistics on how many deaths are caused in the US due to pollution we do know that 150,000 Americans die each year from lung cancer. All this and we haven't even begun to discuss global warming. These calculations are based off of what is merely what is happening right now and we are ignoring future sea level rise, hurricane increase, ocean acidification, etc. Just something to chew on.

Now for some smoggy pictures of LA!


Can you see the sky scrapers?

Source:
FT.com, 750,000 a year killed by Chinese pollution, Richard McGregor, July 2 2007 22:03
Oncology Channel, Lung Cancer
Logicalscience.com, Smog in Tehran: 9/11 in a Month, Thursday, January 11, 2007
World Bank, COST OF POLLUTION IN CHINA ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF PHYSICAL DAMAGES
Chemistry.org, Energy: the 50-Year Plan, Nancy_McGuire
PBS, Interview: Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Richard Smalley, October 20, 2003
NASA, Eastern China Pollution, Visualization Date
1999-11-20

Testing the Water:
Oil Companies Don't Always Clean Up Their Mess


"A crude high-five: Actress Daryl Hannah tests the "water" in a pit in the oil-producing region of Ecuador's Amazon jungle. Indians and settlers are suing Chevron for allegedly failing to clean up billions of gallons of oily wastewater. Hannah planned to discuss the lawsuit with Ecuador's president."

Source:
SfGate.com, Day in Pictures

Don't Drink (Or Swim In) The Water

Sex-changing chemicals found in Potomac River

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chemicals known to change the sexual characteristics of fish and other animals have been found in West Virginia tributaries of the Potomac River, which runs through Washington, D.C. and surrounding areas, the U.S. Geological Survey said on Wednesday.

An investigation into fish that had both male and female characteristics turned up a range of chemicals including pesticides, flame retardants, and personal-care products, the USGS said.

The Potomac is fed by rivers and streams in Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia.

"We analyzed samples of 30 smallmouth bass from six sites, including male and female fish without intersex and male fish with intersex," said Douglas Chambers, a USGS scientist who led the study.
"All samples contained detectable levels of at least one known endocrine-disrupting compound, including samples from fish without intersex."

Endocrine disrupters affect the animals' hormone systems. They can cause birth defects and sexual abnormalities called intersex in species ranging from frogs to alligators and perhaps humans as well.

"Antibiotics were detected in municipal wastewater, aquaculture, and poultry-processing effluent, with the highest number of antibiotics and the greatest concentrations found in municipal effluent," the USGS wrote in the report, published at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1393/.

The USGS said the sexual changes in the fish were discovered by accident in 2003, when scientists were investigating massive fish kills.

"Many potential sources of contaminants discharge to the South Branch of the Potomac and Cacapon Rivers. Chief among these are runoff from agricultural activities, municipal and domestic wastewater effluent (both treated and untreated), industrial wastewater, and gypsy moth control programs using dimilin (diflubenzuron)," the report reads.

source:
Reuters, Sex-changing chemicals found in Potomac River,Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:25pm ET28

E/The Environmental Magazine, Drugging Our Water: We Flush It, Then We Drink It by Melissa Knopper, Volume XIV, Number 1 http://www.emagazine.com
Drugs in the Water, Story and photo by Leah Eisenstadt

Smog in Tehran:
9/11 in a Month



Pollution kills not only kills, but it is a serious threat. Don't let anyone else tell you otherwise. Straight from the BBC:

Air pollution is estimated to have killed nearly 10,000 people in Tehran over a one-year period, including 3,600 in a month, Iranian officials say.

Most of the deaths were caused by heart attacks and respiratory illnesses brought on by smog, they said.

Source:
BBC, Iran smog 'kills 3,600 in month', Tuesday, 9 January 2007, 16:52 GMT

Cost of Iraq? $2 Trillion?

Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University Professor and Nobel Prize winner in Economics, joined forces with Harvards Linda Bilmes to calculate the cost of Iraq. Stiglitz expounds:

"Our estimates are very conservative, and it could be that the final costs will be much higher. And it should be noted they do not include the costs of the conflict to either Iraq or the UK."

His paper is available on his website (http://josephstiglitz.com/). Oil is expected to increase in cost in the future. Because of this the Army Core of Engineers says "oil wars are certainly not out of the question". The cost of a future oil war could very easily surpass the estimated cost $5-10 billion a year over 10 years for developing an alternative to oil and all know fossil fuels. And lets not forget our nuclear loving Iran. Just giving another reason to fight global warming.

Source:
Digg
Guardian Unlimited, Iraq war could cost US over $2 trillion, says Nobel prize-winning economist, Jamie Wilson in Washington, Saturday January 7, 2006
The Vancouver Sun: Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn, Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Slate, Did We Just Declare War on Iran?Decoding this week's sound bites., Shmuel Rosner, Friday, Jan. 12, 2007, at 1:33 PM ET

Insurance Companies Stop Offering Hurricane Coverage:
Reason? Global Warming.




Straight from the post:

Allstate plans to stop offering property insurance in nearly a dozen counties along the Chesapeake Bay starting in February.

The reason: the increased risk of hurricane damage due to rising ocean temperatures, possibly caused by global warming.

According to the Baltimore Sun, Allstate is part of a growing number of insurance companies that are refusing to cover hurricane-prone areas. The trend started in Florida, which sustained millions of dollars in damage from Hurricane Andrew, and is now moving up to our neck of the woods.

Source:
Washington Post, Global Warming Ate My Insurance Policy, Annys Shin | December 22, 2006; 7:50 AM ET

Lohachara island, home of 10,000, is claimed by the ocean.



Straight from the source:

Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India's part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.

As the seas continue to swell, they will swallow whole island nations, from the Maldives to the Marshall Islands, inundate vast areas of countries from Bangladesh to Egypt, and submerge parts of scores of coastal cities.

I'm going to have to check up on this a little more. I remember reading a few journals discussing how very small sea level rises can destabilize land masses by saturating the soil which dramatically increases soil erosion. The current sea level rise is about 3 mm/yr which can add up to a lot for a low lying island when you consider the first industrial revolution began in 1789. A quick search on Dr Sugata Hazra shows that he has published in the proceedings of the Indian National Academy of Sciences. So he certainly has some credibility. The article doesn't reference a journal and a quick search on Lohachara via google scholar doesn't turn up anything by Hazra. So I have to take this news report with a grain of salt. This may or may not be a case of hype. Only time will tell.

Source
*Disappearing world: Global warming claims tropical island For the first time, an inhabited island has disappeared beneath rising seas. Environment Editor Geoffrey Lean reports 24 December 2006
*Eric Hobsbawm, The Age of Revolution: Europe 1789–1848, Weidenfeld & Nicolson Ltd. ISBN 0-349-10484-0
*Development of grabens and associated fault-drags: an experimental study Sugata Hazra - Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences. Earth and …, 1995 - cat.inist.fr